A few thoughts on “Talent”

In Talent, authors Tyler Cowen and Daniel Grossman pull apart how to evaluate, assess, and match potential candidates to the right opportunities. Unlike markets for things like physical goods or equities, the market for human capital is opaque and illiquid. Price discovery occurs during interviews, pitches, offer negotiations, funding rounds. This process works, kind of, but it’s not great. Some people are too good at interviewing/pitching then their real-life working/executing, or vice versa. Some people are overlooked because the talent “spotters” don’t even really know what they’re looking for, they’re just looking for what everyone else seems to be looking for

With Cowen, and economist, and Gross, an entrepreneur/engineer/VC, you can feel their discomfort with the lack of transparency and the unsystematic nature of this “market” and the book is a list of suggestions to help people get better understand both themselves and potential candidates. Chapters with fun suggestions for interview questions help potential talent spotters with ways to "look past the surfaces”, both in candidates and what the talent assessor really needs. A chapter on identifying talented candidates with individuals encourages spotters to “[k]eep an open mind”.

Have only read about 60% so far so maybe our opinion will change, but so far so good!

"Siting bank branches"

Patrick McKenzie summarizes how banks identify and build out branch locations.

• This is a fun article and good reminder that while digital banking has expanded, physical footprints remain very important to some of banks’ most important customers.

• Makes a lot of sense that banks want to avoid local zoning meetings - can be an ugly place, especially for anyone trying to build something new

• And on curb cuts, a minor detail most people don’t think about: “I love the fractal nature of detail here; every detail about the built world was a painstakingly made decision at some point.”

Wikipedia is easier to use than Lexis and Westlaw

Researchers from MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) and Maynooth University, Ireland came up with a friendly stress test: creating new legal Wikipedia articles to examine how they affect the legal decisions of judges…

It turned out the influx of articles tipped the scales: getting a Wikipedia article increased a case’s citations by more than 20%. The increase was statistically significant and the effect was particularly strong for cases that supported the argument the citing judge was making in their decision (but not the converse). Unsurprisingly, the increase was bigger for citations by lower courts - the High Court - and mostly absent for citations by appellate courts - the Supreme Court and Court of Appeal. The researchers suspect that this is showing that Wikipedia is used more by judges or clerks who have a heavier workload, for whom the convenience of Wikipedia offers a greater attraction.

Full story here. The researchers suggest taking steps to improve the reliability of information posted to wikipedia, which makes sense. How about improving the accessibility of the law as well? LexisNexis and Westlaw are expensive and, even if you have access to it, just not as easy to use as google, wikipedia etc.

Jitters

The following is from a training we did with CJM Search recruiters and was as joint effort between CJM Search and Silicon Sal, friend of the blog. Anything that sounds wrong or bad is Sal’s; smart stuff’s ours.

Another day and another round of layoffs from tech companies. It’s pretty clear that the tech bull run of the last couple years is slowing down. So what’s actually happening? Not really sure! But let’s stick with what we do know, and then maybe we can branch off and speculate from there:

• Macroeconomic events are driving uncertainty 

  • The war in Ukraine has caused a massive amount of geopolitical risk that previously didn't exist

  • Related to the war in Ukraine, energy costs are rising and supply chains are disrupted, which have driven up cost of doing business across industries

  • COVID is still impacting businesses and workforces, causing labor shortages and other talent disruptions

  • Inflation has been rising rapidly, which also increases the cost of doing business (through higher cost of inputs, labor, etc) - the Fed has also taken unprecedented steps to curb inflation by raising interest rates dramatically in a short period of time

• Financial markets react negatively to that uncertainty

  • Financial markets hate uncertainty, because it drives difficulty in projecting how a business will perform (and thus its fundamental underlying value)

  • The stock market has suffered because of this uncertainty, with technology stocks being hit particularly hard (e.g., Nasdaq down ~25% YTD)

  • Due to the market uncertainty and stock market drop, the fundraising environment for private companies has slowed considerably

    • The rise in interest rates also means the "cost of capital" has increased; for the past ~10 years, interest rates have been very low making investing in venture capital a much more attractive investment than say investing in bonds, or steadier, low growth equities - this is no longer the case in today's market

    • Why is that? High interest rates mean that a dollar today is worth a lot more than a dollar 5 years from now. Let’s do that math, just for fun. Where interest rates are 10%, the value of a dollar in five years is $1*(1.10^5) = $1.61. Where interest rates are 1%, the value of a dollar in 5 years is $1*(1.01^5) = $1.05. In a low interest rate world, a tech company's future profits are worth today almost what they will actually be in the future.

• What does this mean for the companies that we work with?

  • Over the past ~10 years (in the frothy, low interest rate times mentioned before), tech companies were evaluated (both in public and private markets) primarily on top-line revenue growth and their ability to gain market share 

  • With the recent market shifts, companies are now being evaluated more heavily on their ability to drive profits and free cash flow in their bottom line (and not just singularly growth)

  • Because of this, companies likely will shift their hiring strategies towards roles that will drive profitable growth

• How long do we think this period will last?

  • No one knows, but it is unlikely to end quickly - most companies are developing plans to "weather the storm" of the next couple years, but the environment could shift again rapidly

Bezos is mixing it up with preservationists to get his new yacht out to sea

Apparently the masts of his new yacht are too tall to fit beneath a historic Rotterdam bridge (via margionalrevolution.com)

Meanwhile our CEO’s new pleasure yacht, assembled earlier today and pictured below, has MULTIPLE folding clam shells, a gem, and will require ZERO historic bridge demolishing.

Matt Yglesias on poaching in the tech industry

One reason that Silicon Valley might have become so successful is the lack of non-competes, allowing for engineers to easily move between companies. Here’s Matt Yglesias on the potential connection between that policy and innovation.

NYT on Resumes

Part advice, part history. Here’s a bit:

The internet says Leonardo da Vinci wrote the first résumé in the late 15th century. He pitched his weaponry chops — not his artistic services — to Ludovico Sforza, the Duke of Milan. It seems right that Leonardo would have “Invented résumé” on his résumé, but wrong that he met the future patron of “The Last Supper” by applying for the job of entry-level war maker. A Renaissance man and a career changer.

Waze CEO on building a company inside Google

“No one buys technology, you buy a team and a way of doing things.” In other words, “People, ideas, machines… in that order.”

The only person who went to Stanford GSB to be a poet?

Really enjoyed Dana Gioia on Econtalk. Is poetry back? We had Amanda Gorman at the inauguration. Was Vince Lombardi’s thing at the super bowl kind of poetic? Maybe?

Did some googling after listening to this episode and came across this fun story about Wallace Stevens, poet/insurance executive:

At another party in Key West, in 1936, a swaggering Stevens loudly impugned the manhood of Ernest Hemingway. When Hemingway showed up, Stevens took a swing at him, and Hemingway knocked him down. Stevens got up and landed a solid punch to Hemingway’s jaw, which broke his hand in two places. Hemingway then battered him, but later cheerfully accepted his meek apology. They agreed to a cover story: Stevens had been injured falling down stairs.

Happy (belated) Birthday, J.R.R Tolkien!

He would have been 129 yesterday, January 3, 2021. As we shake off the holiday cobwebs and prepare for a challenging next few months, here’s Tolkien on hobbits:

Nonetheless, ease and peace had left this people still curiously tough. They were, if it came to it, difficult to daunt or to kill; and they were, perhaps, so unwearyingly fond of good things not least because they could, when put to it, do without them, and could survive rough handling by grief, foe, or weather in a way that astonished those who did not know them well and looked no further than their bellies and their well-fed faces.

And happy new year, everybody!

Byrne Hobart on Metis in Big Tech

“An ML-driven approach is only possible at large scale, and scale is only possible through legibility. But it’s the fate of all these legibility-imposers to move past legibility. They impose order on the world, and then they automate the order-imposing process, the order-imposer-refining process, and so on, until the end result is determined by a metis available to nobody.” Essay is here.

this is some recruiter shit right here..

pls take a peek at this ridiculousness

will shortz

Check out this article on how Will Shortz, the New York Times crossword editor, works. For one, I love this because I am obsessed with the NYT crossword puzzle. And secondly, this whole thing is just amazing- I love that he knew he wanted this job since he was ten. Think this whole thing is just super interesting and enjoyed this read.

too many emails!

Cal Newport (CS professor, author of Digital Minimalism) contemplates the “irony in the history of technology that the development of synchronous distributed computer systems has been used to create a communication style in which we are always out of synch” in this new yorker article. Lots of good stuff, but my favorite part is the anecdote of a CEO who has managed to reduce the time spent battling the inbox - “Recently, the founder and C.E.O. of a publicly traded technology company told me that he spends at most two or three hours a week sending and receiving e-mails; he has replaced most of his asynchronous messaging with a ‘regular rhythm’ of meetings, which allows him to efficiently address issues in real time. ‘If you keep needing to send me urgent messages, then my assumption is that there’s something broken about the way you’re doing business,’ he said.”

It reminds me of an anecdote of that Dan Carlin shares in this podcast, about General Joffre, a leader of French forces in WWI. Joffre instructed his subordinates that, even during some of the most severe/dire fighting, he was not to be interrupted during mealtimes or sleep.

You can either be a doer/leader; or just a message-responder. I’m probably the latter ;)

emus in sprinklers

very important watch

wellllllll..

this is disturbing on so many levels

gummies to just gums: a peek into the mind of a business owner post 8p

im pretty sure in about 40 yrs i will have no teeth left, as i have a disturbing addiction to gummy candies (and burgers but that’s unrelated for this particular post). every night around 8p (post dinner..i’m not an animal), i fetch my gummy bucket (a cookie jar of sorts for gelatinous treats) and grab a handful. i think it’s about time i blessed the inexperienced gummy munchers with my rating systems of best to worst gummy options:

1. twin snakes- these are without a doubt my favorite. so beautifully balanced- one sour, one traditionally sweet to have any which way you please. if you eat together its a delightful surprise. if you peel them apart, you can choose total sour or total sweet. truly so many options and so delicious.

2. haribo goldbear gummies- a classic

3. starmix- a bundle of options with all of my favorites, including twin snakes

4. happy cherries

5. happy cola

6. peaches

7. sour patch

8. sweedish fish

enjoy!

alexa is listening to everything

guys, this is so weird. and disturbing. kind of by chance we don’t have one (and bc i am an insane minimalist who has like 5 shirts and throws out everything in our tiny apartment), but i am so happy we dont.

one spiegel denies sexy texting. one creates a porn site.

evan spiegel’s lil sister’s no visuals porn site.

wtf is this....

Amazon: The Treasure Truck

We hand-pick our favorite, new, trending, local, or delicious items, load them on the Truck, then cruise around town spreading joy for everyone with an appetite for fun. 

Here’s how it works:

• We send you a notification revealing that day’s must-have item

• You buy it on Amazon and choose a pickup location

• You meet us at the Truck and get the goods!

Can't wait to meet you, 
The Treasure Truck Team